Former US President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a tight race according to the latest national NBC News poll. The poll indicates that Trump’s support has grown, boosted by foreign-based Republicans returning to the US after last month’s debate and positive voter evaluations of his presidency.
Released three weeks before Election Day, the survey also reveals a drop in Harris’ popularity compared to a month ago, following her significant summer surge. The results highlight a stark gender gap in support between Harris and Trump, with abortion emerging as a key issue for voters as the 2024 election approaches.
“As summer fades into fall, any momentum for Kamala Harris has stalled,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the survey alongside Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “The race is a dead heat.”
Republican pollster Bill McInturff noted that “headwinds” facing Kamala Harris, including concerns that she does not represent a significant change from President Biden, have tightened the race. Voters are viewing Trump’s presidency more favorably compared to Biden’s. McInturff pointed out that Harris is seeking another term for the incumbent party.
Despite this, uncertainty looms over the election, with 10% of voters indicating they may change their minds, and some undecided voters still in play. The poll also shows that a record number of voters believe this election will significantly impact their lives.
The third-party vote could influence the outcome, with Trump gaining a slight advantage when third-party candidates are included, giving him a 1-point lead. Horwitt, the Democratic pollster, emphasized Harris’s challenge of addressing voters’ concerns about her, while Trump must convince voters that the chaos of his first term won’t affect his ability to govern.
The NBC News poll, conducted from October 4-8, shows Trump and Harris tied at 48% among registered voters. In a head-to-head matchup, 4% remain undecided or would not vote for either candidate. This is a shift from September, when Harris led Trump by 5 points. With third-party candidates included, Trump edges ahead by 1 point at 47%, while Harris stands at 46%. September’s poll had Harris leading by 6 points.
Voter turnout could be decisive: if Republicans have a stronger turnout—particularly among men, white voters, and those without college degrees—Trump leads by 2 points (49%-47%). If Democrats turn out more women, college-educated white voters, and voters of color, Harris leads by 3 points (49%-46%). All results fall within the poll’s margin of error of ±3.1 points.
